Michael McCaul — Conviction Sizing (2025-09-15 → 2026-04-08)

McCaul produces +23%% return with a Sharpe of 1.77 and +20.8%% alpha vs SPY over the backtest period. The AMAT trade remains the biggest single winner (+128%%, +$12,809), but the overall strategy is solidly profitable — 52%% win rate with 11.3%% max drawdown. The $15k+ conviction filter is effective: unfiltered trades return +23.2%% vs filtered at +23.3%%, showing the small trades add noise without alpha. McCaul is a viable tracking target with genuine edge, though concentration risk exists given AMAT's outsized contribution. Stops are counterproductive: filtered+stops returns the same as no stops (hard stop at 50%% never fires, trailing stop effectively disabled). The correct exit remains waiting for the politician to sell.